Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 7.508846e-05 0.000090 0.000106 0.000124 0.000144 0.000166 0.000191
2025-02-23 5.411546e-05 0.000073 0.000096 0.000123 0.000155 0.000192 0.000237
2025-03-02 4.187293e-05 0.000062 0.000087 0.000119 0.000158 0.000204 0.000262
2025-03-09 3.182737e-05 0.000052 0.000078 0.000114 0.000160 0.000215 0.000285
2025-03-16 2.607958e-05 0.000046 0.000074 0.000114 0.000165 0.000229 0.000312
2025-03-23 2.164754e-05 0.000042 0.000071 0.000114 0.000171 0.000244 0.000340
2025-03-30 1.776513e-05 0.000038 0.000068 0.000113 0.000175 0.000256 0.000364
2025-04-06 1.404028e-05 0.000033 0.000063 0.000109 0.000176 0.000263 0.000382
2025-04-13 1.155920e-05 0.000030 0.000060 0.000109 0.000180 0.000274 0.000405
2025-04-20 8.638369e-06 0.000025 0.000054 0.000103 0.000176 0.000276 0.000416
2025-04-27 7.087069e-06 0.000023 0.000052 0.000103 0.000180 0.000287 0.000438
2025-05-04 5.829485e-06 0.000021 0.000050 0.000103 0.000184 0.000298 0.000461
2025-05-11 4.979777e-06 0.000020 0.000051 0.000107 0.000195 0.000321 0.000503
2025-05-18 3.912556e-06 0.000018 0.000049 0.000107 0.000202 0.000338 0.000537
2025-05-25 2.626007e-06 0.000015 0.000045 0.000103 0.000200 0.000343 0.000554
2025-06-01 1.723707e-06 0.000013 0.000041 0.000099 0.000199 0.000348 0.000572
2025-06-08 1.212165e-06 0.000011 0.000039 0.000098 0.000202 0.000360 0.000599
2025-06-15 8.715701e-07 0.000010 0.000038 0.000099 0.000208 0.000375 0.000630
2025-06-22 5.698348e-07 0.000009 0.000036 0.000098 0.000211 0.000386 0.000656
2025-06-29 3.182946e-07 0.000007 0.000033 0.000095 0.000210 0.000392 0.000674
2025-07-06 1.864598e-07 0.000006 0.000031 0.000094 0.000213 0.000403 0.000701
2025-07-13 6.735530e-08 0.000005 0.000028 0.000089 0.000209 0.000402 0.000710
2025-07-20 2.968169e-08 0.000004 0.000027 0.000089 0.000212 0.000414 0.000737